Only 33% of new plumbers stay past 2 years, fueling a permanent 550K worker gap

Plumbing apprenticeships require 4-5 years and thousands of supervised hours, but only 33% of new plumbers remain in the field beyond two years. The U.S. is projected to be short 550,000 plumbers by 2027, and this shortage costs the economy roughly $33 billion annually. The people who suffer most are homeowners facing $150-300/hour emergency rates and 2-3 week wait times for non-urgent work, and small plumbing shop owners who invest $30K-50K training apprentices only to lose them. The problem persists because the training pipeline is structurally mismatched: the trade demands a 4-5 year commitment before full earning potential, but young workers see faster income paths in tech, gig work, or shorter-cycle trades like HVAC. Meanwhile, 20%+ of the current 504,500-person workforce is over 55 and retiring at roughly 10,000 Baby Boomers per day nationwide. The replacement rate mathematically cannot keep up when two-thirds of entrants bail within 24 months.