81% of captured CO2 goes to enhanced oil recovery, undermining climate claims

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The vast majority of CO2 captured by industrial CCS facilities is sold for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), where it is injected into depleted oil fields to extract additional petroleum. According to the IEA, approximately 81% of captured CO2 globally is used for EOR. Each tonne of CO2 injected for EOR produces an additional 2-3 barrels of oil, which when burned releases roughly 0.8-1.2 tonnes of CO2. This creates an accounting nightmare: the captured CO2 is counted as 'sequestered' for 45Q tax credit purposes (worth $60/tonne for EOR use), but the additional oil it enables extracting generates new emissions that are attributed to downstream consumers, not the CCS operator. A lifecycle analysis cannot simultaneously credit the capture AND ignore the incremental oil production it enables. Corporate buyers purchasing CCS-linked offsets often do not realize their 'carbon removal' credit funded additional fossil fuel extraction. The problem persists because the EOR market provides the only reliable revenue stream for most CCS projects today ($20-40/barrel of additional oil revenue), and without it, the 45Q credit alone is insufficient to make capture economically viable. The industry is structurally dependent on the very emissions it claims to reduce.

Evidence

IEA data shows ~81% of captured CO2 used for EOR globally. Scientific American (2023) investigated Big Oil's carbon capture claims. IEEFA report (March 2022) documented CCS-EOR projects' chronic underperformance. The IEA published a detailed analysis asking 'Can CO2-EOR really provide carbon-negative oil?' and found that lifecycle accounting varies dramatically based on methodology. 45Q provides $60/tonne for EOR use vs. $85/tonne for dedicated geological storage.

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