58% of high-risk CKD patients never see a nephrologist

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Among patients whose Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) score exceeds 10% -- meaning they have a significant probability of needing dialysis within 5 years -- only 41.5% visit a nephrologist within one year. Even among the highest-risk group (KFRE 90-100%, meaning near-certain dialysis), just 57.7% see a nephrologist within a year. This late referral is catastrophic because it means patients crash into dialysis unprepared: no fistula placement (so they start on a dangerous catheter), no transplant workup (losing years of potential waitlist time), no education about home dialysis options, and no dietary or medication optimization to slow progression. Primary care physicians are the bottleneck -- they often lack CKD-specific training, do not use KFRE calculators, and perceive no urgency until the patient is already at stage 5. Non-white patients are 2.6x more likely to be referred late. Patients over 65 are 3.5x more likely to be referred late. The structural reason: there is no CMS quality measure penalizing primary care for late nephrology referral, no financial incentive for early referral, and no integrated alert system connecting primary care EHRs to nephrology workflows when a patient's eGFR crosses a threshold.

Evidence

Only 41.5% of patients with KFRE >10% see a nephrologist within 1 year (PMC10148329). Among KFRE 90-100%, only 57.7% see a nephrologist within 1 year. Non-white patients 2.6x more likely to be referred late; patients >65 are 3.5x more likely (PubMed 11728948). Only 11.6% and 32.4% of low- and elevated-risk CKD patients had a nephrology visit within 1 year. No CMS quality measure for timely referral. Sources: PMC10148329 'Gaps in Nephrology Referral Care Utilization'; Renal and Urology News 'Study Finds Low Nephrology Referral Rate for High-Risk CKD'; AJMC 'Primary Care Referrals to Nephrology in Patients With Advanced Kidney Disease'; CMS Chronic Kidney Disease Disparities Educational Guide.

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