Demand response 'snapback' surges crash the grid at exactly the moment the emergency ends
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When utilities run demand response events to reduce load during peak periods, thousands of smart thermostats reset simultaneously when the event ends, triggering a massive synchronized spike in air conditioning demand called 'snapback.' This surge can exceed the original peak that triggered the demand response event in the first place. So what? Grid operators must keep expensive peaker plants online and spinning during the entire demand response window just to handle the snapback, which negates much of the cost savings that justified the demand response program. So what? Utilities that paid millions to enroll customers in demand response programs cannot count the full capacity reduction toward their resource adequacy requirements, meaning they must still procure backup generation. So what? Ratepayers fund both the demand response incentive payments AND the backup generation, paying twice for the same reliability. So what? Regulators lose confidence in demand response as a grid resource, slowing approval of virtual power plant programs that could defer billion-dollar transmission upgrades. So what? The grid remains dependent on centralized fossil fuel generation because distributed resources cannot prove their reliability. The problem persists because most smart thermostats use simple on/off logic rather than gradual ramp-back algorithms, demand response platforms lack coordination across competing thermostat brands, and there is no standardized protocol for staggered recovery.
Evidence
Canary Media documents the snapback effect and decaying response in demand response programs (https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/virtual-power-plants/fine-tuning-how-homes-can-help-the-grid-as-virtual-power-plants). Utility Dive reports that customer wariness and limited awareness remain barriers to effective demand response (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/demand-response-dr-utility-programs-resideo/754205/).